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Statistically, am I more likely to catch SARS in Thailand than in England?

 
 
Olulabelle
18:26 / 20.04.03
I've just heard on Radio 4 (so it must be true) that some countries are quarantining parts of cities (Singapore city and Toronto) which are affected by SARS. However, I've heard very little about Thailand other than in the Lab thread on Superflu, which reports 7 cases. Ralai, South West Thailand is where I am going on Saturday.

Given that SARS cases have been reported in England (London and Cambridge) am I any more likely to contract it by going to Thailand, and more to the point, should I care?!
 
 
Baz Auckland
21:01 / 20.04.03
I would check the government's foreign office travel advisories. Not because you should be that paranoid of getting it, but you should make sure they won't make a big deal of letting you back in when you return.
 
 
Olulabelle
23:07 / 20.04.03
They might not let me back in?? God. Better have a look then. Thanks Baz.
 
 
grant
23:43 / 20.04.03
Here's a point: some researchers believe that colds & flu are more prevalent in the winter because they're transmitted via aerosol droplets from coughing. The droplets tend to evaporate quickly, so you have to be pretty close to a sneezing person to get sick. And in cold weather, people tend to huddle closer than they do in warm weather.

One of the supports for this theory is that in tropical countries, there are more cases of flu during the warm, monsoon months... when rainy weather leads to the same huddling behavior.

For what it's worth. I was just reading about this in the Scientific American.com q&a pages.
 
 
The Return Of Rothkoid
14:06 / 21.04.03
Recheck your travel insurance, would be my advice: I believe some places aren't covering places like Hong Kong - that could've become a blanket Asian thing by now, though, given the recent "er, yeah, it's a bit more serious" announcement by China. You might have to do a mandatory-week-off-work-before-returning thing, also, which has become quite common here (Australia) for corps with staff returning from O/S travel.

I think you might be more likely to get SARS in Asia, yes. But whether you will or not - who could say?
 
 
grant
15:14 / 21.04.03
Just saw a report that they've quarantined the largest vegetable market in Singapore, all employees in hospital, market closed for two weeks.

Singapore is quite a bit closer to Thailand than Hong Kong & Guangzhou are - especially if you're planning to go to the resort islands.

Here's from the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) latest SARS travel advisory, expiring August 11:

CDC advises that people planning elective or nonessential travel to mainland China and Hong Kong; Singapore; and Hanoi, Vietnam may wish to postpone their trips until further notice.


Also...

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) has authorized the departure, on a voluntary basis, of family members at the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi and the Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City. ...The Department of State warns U.S. citizens, particularly those traveling with children, to defer nonemergency travel to Vietnam at this time.

The CDC have also been given quarantine powers, via Executive Order, although these haven't been used yet.


Here's a map of the region:


Singapore's at the bottom of that dangly peninsula formed by Thailand and Malaysia. Vietnam is the next lumpy-dangly bit over, and then comes the island groups of which Hong Kong and Macau are a part. Beijing is much farther northwest.

Here's a list of affected areas from the World Health Organization SARS pages.
Notice that London is on the list, although none of the cases in London have involved any major transmission of the disease beyond close person-to-person contact.

No sites currently report SARS in Thailand.
I'd definitely keep an eye on the Singapore thing, though.
 
 
grant
15:22 / 21.04.03
To clarify, there were cases of SARS in Thailand. Two people died, the rest got better.
 
 
Bill Posters
15:40 / 21.04.03
I got a cough!!!!
 
 
Mourne Kransky
18:01 / 21.04.03
[thread rot] I see there's the (helpfully) descriptively named Great Sandy Desert in the North of Australia. Not much of name, is it? What the Hell else would be in a desert? The Great Cheese Desert? The Great French Onion Soup Desert? [/rot]

re: SARS and the worry engendered by news reports, there's this interesting Overview of a Pending Criminal Action Regarding the SARS Outbreak in Ontario, Canada, where the public health agencies are apparently being sued for spreading "SARS hysteria".

"Additional evidence ... derives from British Columbia wherein ... Their quarantine procedures, and health communications, generally reduced the threat of SARS, and phobic behavior change ... in contrast to the defendants’ actions in Ontario.

Furthermore, the defendants neglected to apply the standard of care in public health communications, based on the respected field of science known as “risk communication,” to appropriately educate the public regarding the actual risk posed by SARS, rather than the magnified misperceived threat...

Generally disregarded by Ontario health officials was the fact that the threat posed by SARS paled by comparison to other flu-like illnesses. Tens of thousands of immune compromised persons died across North America in 2002 following flu virus infections (nearly 36,000 people in the United States alone that year)—a death toll that barely received media mention compared to Toronto’s press response following the official proclamations concerning the first few deaths from SARS in this city.

... They further failed to promote myriad self-care strategies for immune enhancement and infectious disease prevention that is responsibly and inexpensively achieved through safe and practical methods such as improved nutrition, adequate hydration, and proper rest...

All of this resulted in the public’s ill-informed and chaotic response, approaching mass hysteria, in which much untold harm has been suffered, particularly among individuals psychologically and medically predisposed to phobia induction."

I see they're advertising "SARS gas masks" online now. I'd be more worried about recycled aeroplane air than somebody coughing on me in Thailand, I think, but neither would stop me going to lie under a palm tree by the blue sea and eat lots of Thai food. Good luck olulabelle!
 
 
Andrew C*** passing himself of as Haus
02:42 / 22.04.03
I'm here. It's fine!
 
 
Baz Auckland
10:06 / 22.04.03
[Report from Toronto:] Before my exam started yesterday, they announced that anyone with the following symptoms of SARS should leave immediately and could write the exam when their symptoms are gone. It was tempting, I tell you.
 
 
mkt
12:11 / 22.04.03
(Threadrot)
I've had the most disgusting and painful cough imaginable for a week. Which is bad enough. So if one more hilarious bastard asks if I've just got back from Hong Kong, I'm going to wish extra hard that I was unwittingly spreading the virus to them even as we spoke.
Sorry. It's been a very annoying time to have a bad cough though, as I'm sure you can imagine.
(No more threadrot from me)
 
 
The Return Of Rothkoid
14:13 / 22.04.03
Just quickly: apparently, I saw on Lateline tonight that the WHO have been poking around in China again this week and have are currently of the opinion that the number of people coming down with SARS has yet to peak - something was mentioned about the Chinese New Year and increased rates of travel then. Though I had cannoli and was too entranced by marscarpone to be paying too much attention.

Xoc: at least we have deserts. Pshaw. And its name really is "The Big Fuckin' Sandpit". It's true. You just have to find the Big Bucket and Spade somewhere along the road. Besides - the name's to ensure you can tell it from the Great Cultural Desert...
 
 
Jub
14:48 / 23.05.03
no need to worry about SARS say Russian Scientists
 
 
We're The Great Old Ones Now
15:45 / 23.05.03
Statistically, you're probably more likely to get struck by lightning. Certainly you're vastly more likely to get Malaria. And in that connection may I suggest you don't take Lariam as an anti-malarial if you can avoid it. That's one truly scary drug.
 
 
Bill Posters
15:12 / 25.05.03
i'm still alive, so nobody panic.
 
 
Olulabelle
12:42 / 26.05.03
I appear to have survived the trip.

But I have got a sore throat. (Although on consideration, this is more than probably due to smoking hardcore Thai cigarettes and anything else which was passed my way...)

BTW, the Thai government have just introduced an edict which states that anyone who can prove they caught SARS in Thailand gets the princely sum of $100,000. This is in force for the next 180 days, so given the unlikelyhood of dying from SARS it seems like rather a good idea to go out of your way to catch it.
 
 
gingerbop
12:53 / 26.05.03
EEEEEEEEERrrmmmm... good plan Lula- just PLEASE dont do it!
Glad ur home safe- ur presence was much missed.

I reakon people are going *way* over the top with it, when theres so many diseases spreading so much faster, which are much more common, and have a higher likelyhood of death (i'll just say there are, coz there probably are- not that i could name any...but lets say aids, its not pleasant).

Heh thought it was funny that my mum paniced on a flight from greece last week, because there were lots of asians wearing masks. Would she prefer they didnt wear masks...?
 
 
Olulabelle
13:02 / 26.05.03
In Bangkok airport it mainly seemed to be the Japanese and the Americans sporting masks. Which says what about these two cultures? That they're extremely sensible? Extremely cautious? Or do they just more easily fall for the media hype?

The British, I might add were too busy to worry about SARS, most of them seemed to be frantically trying to borrow 500 baht off unsuspecting travellers in order to pay the exit-the-country airport tax they were 'unaware' of.
 
  
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