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Hokay. We've been thinking about imminent doom for so long, I thought it might be challenging & constructive to consider how things might go right in Iraq, and how a war might, even at this late date, be averted.
Let's keep it within the realms of realpolitik—no alien interventions, no Peace Mango beaming down healing rays of brotherly love: just hard work and smart choices from the persons involved.
Best outcome I can imagine...
Short term: This weekend's Arab League summit produces an offer of asylum for Saddam, and he accepts (it's within the realm of possibility, I think—he's an ego-crazed megalomaniac, yes, but he's also notoriously interested in his own personal safety: he's getting old, and he's not in great health anymore). Saddam and a number of key people loyal to him go into exile somewhere.
The Ba'athist regime is left rudderless, and topples in a bloodless coup—either by a populist uprising (probably preferable), or when the troops of the Anglosphere march into Baghdad without resistance (probably more likely). Either way, the Western powers have quite literally lost their war: now they've got to win the peace.
Now's the time for the good guys to put their money where their mouths are. South Africa lends its expertise to the voluntary disarmament plan—and, as it knows a thing or two about peaceful transition from oligarchy to democracy, to the political reconstruction as well. The opposition groups iron out their differences (with or without a brief period of Western military rule—it would be odious, but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world; see also post-WWII Japan), the Anglosphere pours all the money they'd earmarked for war into a Marshall Plan-style rebuilding of Iraq's economy and infrastructure, free elections are held within two years and Iraq rejoins the family of nations.
In time, its functional democracy leads to widespread reforms across the Arab world, and legitimate political enfranchisement starts to rob terrorism of its appeal for young men.
Ya think? |
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